Cancer Res Treat.  2016 Apr;48(2):451-457. 10.4143/crt.2016.092.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2016

• Jung KW
• Won YJ
• Oh CM
• Kong HJ
• Cho H
• Lee JK
• Lee DH
• Lee KH

• KMID: 2454320
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.092

Abstract

PURPOSE
To estimate of Korea's current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2016.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2013 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2014 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2016 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.
RESULTS
A total of 254,962 new cancer cases and 75,172 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2016. The five leading primary cancer incident sites in 2016 were estimated colorectal, stomach, lung, liver and thyroid cancer in men; thyroid, breast, colorectal, stomach, and lung cancer in women.
CONCLUSION
Currently cancer is one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea. Although cancer rates are anticipated to decrease the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase as the population ages.

Keyword

Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Forecasting; Korea; 2016

MeSH Terms

Breast
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Incidence*
Korea*
Linear Models
Liver
Lung
Lung Neoplasms
Male
Mortality*
Public Health
Stomach
Thyroid Gland
Thyroid Neoplasms

Figure

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  Fig. 1. The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2016. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.

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  Fig. 2. Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2016 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

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  Fig. 3. Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2016 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

Reference

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