Cancer Res Treat.  2018 Apr;50(2):317-323. 10.4143/crt.2018.142.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2018

• Jung KW
• Won YJ
• Kong HJ
• Lee ES

• KMID: 2411121
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2018.142

Abstract

PURPOSE
This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2018 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2015 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2016 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly, we only used the data of the latest trend.
RESULTS
A total of 204,909 new cancer cases and 82,155 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2018. The most common cancer sites were lung, followed by stomach, colorectal, breast and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For mortality, the most common sites were lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, stomach and pancreas.
CONCLUSION
The incidence rate of all cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually, mainly due to decrease of thyroid cancer. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluation of cancer-control programs.

Keyword

Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Forecasting; Korea; 2018

MeSH Terms

Breast
Forecasting
Incidence*
Korea*
Linear Models
Liver
Lung
Lung Neoplasms
Mortality*
Pancreas
Stomach
Thyroid Neoplasms

Figure

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  Fig. 1. The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2018. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.

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  Fig. 2. Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2018 in Korea. (A) Males. (B) Females.

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  Fig. 3. Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2018 in Korea. (A) Males. (B). Females.

Reference

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