Cancer Res Treat.  2011 Mar;43(1):12-18.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2011

• Jung KW
• Park S
• Won YJ
• Kong HJ
• Lee JY
• Park EC
• Lee JS

Abstract

PURPOSE
To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality were projected for the year 2011.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The cancer incidence data from 1999-2008 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and the cancer mortality data from 1993-2009 were obtained from the Korea National Statistics Office. Cancer incident cases and rates in 2011 were projected from fitting a linear regression model on observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was applied for projection except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend significantly changed.
RESULTS
A total of 216,809 new cancer cases and 71,036 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2011. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 437.9 and 420.5 and the age-standardized incidence rates are projected to be 336.5 and 279.7 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as Korea becomes an aged society, the cancer burden will continue to increase.

Keyword

Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Prediction; Korea; 2011

MeSH Terms

Aged
Female
Humans
Incidence
Korea
Linear Models
Male
Public Health

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Ten leading cancer types for the estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2011. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.

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  Fig. 2 Age-specific cancer incidence rates of major cancers during 2011 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

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  Fig. 3 Age-specific cancer mortality rates of major cancers during 2011 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

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