J Clin Neurol.  2013 Jan;9(1):14-20. 10.3988/jcn.2013.9.1.14.

Short-Term and Long-Term Stroke Survival: The Belgrade Prognostic Study

• Medic S
• Beslac-Bumbasirevic L
• Kisic-Tepavcevic D
• Pekmezovic T

• KMID: 2287565
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3988/jcn.2013.9.1.14

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE
The aims of this study were to determine the 28-day and 1-year survival rates after first-ever ischemic stroke and to identify their baseline predictors.
METHODS
We prospectively and consecutively collected data on 300 patients with first-ever acute ischemic stroke admitted to 2 major neurological institutions for cerebrovascular diseases in Belgrade during March 2008. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative 28-day and 1-year survival rates, and the predictive values of different variables were assessed by Cox proportional-hazards regression model.
RESULTS
The cumulative 28-day and 1-year survival rates of ischemic stroke patients in the cohort were 81.0% and 78.3%, respectively. The multivariate predictive model revealed that hypertension (p=0.017), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (p=0.001), and in-hospital medical complications (p=0.029) were significant unfavorable independent outcome predictors, while early physical therapy (p=0.001) was a significant favorable prognostic factor for the 28-day mortality in our patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age (p=0.001), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (p=0.001), and in-hospital complications (p=0.008) remained significant predictors of 1-year mortality.
CONCLUSIONS
The findings support the need for optimal control of vascular risk factors and treatment of atherosclerotic disease as well as appropriate prevention and management of in-hospital complications of stroke.

Keyword

stroke; survival; prognosis

MeSH Terms

Cohort Studies
Humans
Hypertension
National Institutes of Health (U.S.)
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Risk Factors
Stroke
Survival Rate

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Survival probabilities for ischemic stroke patients at 28 days according to TOAST classification. TOAST: Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment.

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  Fig. 2 Survival probabilities for ischemic stroke patients at 1 year according to TOAST classification. TOAST: Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment.

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