Yonsei Med J.  1969 Jun;10(1):65-70. 10.3349/ymj.1969.10.1.65.

An Estimation of Level of Fertility in Korea from the Special Demographic Survey Data on Births and Children Ever Born

• Lee D

• KMID: 687614
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3349/ymj.1969.10.1.65

Abstract

Brass' theoretical model of fertility was applied to the tabulated data of the specific demographic sampling survey (BOS, 1966) in order to assess and to estimate fertility rates in Korea. The estimated total fertility rate, age pattern of fertility rate and other related findings are summarized as follows: 1) In estimating fertility rates throughout the model, the ratios of estimated average parity (Bi) to cumulative current fertility (Fi) showed that the model is only applicable to the data from sub-sample 2 of the rural area. 2) The level of fertility in terms of the total fertility rate in the rural area was in the range of 6.49 to 6.62, remaining at this high level until 1966. 3) The corrected age (grouped in five years)specific birth rates in the rural area by the model were fl=0.015, f2=0.243, f3=0.427, f4=0.278, f5=0.232, f6=0.093 and f7=0.011. These rates followed the general shape of age specific fertility schedule but the level in each age group (except 15-19) was higher than that of such countries as rural Japan (Aoki, 1967), rural Taiwan (Lu, 1967) and Ryukyu (Gov. of Ryukyu, 1967) respectively. 4) In the urban area, every Bi/Fi ratio was above 1.000. This indicated that if "reference period" error was small the current fertility had been downward in recent years against the estimated average panty. 5) Errors due to either recall lapse or interviewer's bias in reporting birth events during the "reference period" was found for older women. However, the errors seemed to be small because recall period during which live births occurred was for the preceeding eighteen instead of twelve months. Out of these eighteen-month events only twelve month births were counted and tabulated. 6) Sub-sample 2 showed a less distorted degree of non-sampling error in comparison to sub-sample 1 in terms of Bi/Fi. 7) Both in the urban and rural areas fertility started relatively late (fl/f2=0.072, f2/f3=0.449 in the rural area; fl/f2=0.063, f2/f3=0.572 in the urban area).

MeSH Terms

Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Birth Rate
Demography*
Family Planning
Female
Fertility*
Human
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Korea
Middle Age
Models, Theoretical
Mortality
Pregnancy
Rural Population
Urban Population