Psychiatry Investig.  2022 Apr;19(4):320-325. 10.30773/pi.2021.0387.

Changing Seasonal Pattern of Suicides in Korea Between 2000 and 2019

• Nam HJ
• Sim HB
• Lee JY
• Kim SW
• Kim JM
• Ryu S

• KMID: 2529262
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.30773/pi.2021.0387

Abstract

Objective
This study aimed to investigate the changing seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea between 2000 and 2019.
Methods
We calculated a seasonal pattern of suicides between 2000 and 2019 using a non-stationary cosinor model. In addition, we estimated the effect of each month on the suicide incidence compared to a reference month, using a generalized linear model with a categorical variable of the month. Then, we visualized the rate ratio curves of suicides by gender, age group, and subperiod.
Results
We observed a seasonal pattern of suicides in Korea with a spring peak and a winter trough. The seasonal ups and downs were most pronounced in suicides among the elderly ≥65 years. However, the seasonal pattern has not been consistent over the past two decades, with lowering seasonal peaks since 2012. The amplitude of seasonality was also lower in 2010–2019 than in 2000–2009.
Conclusion
The seasonal pattern of suicides seems to have diminished in Korea in recent years. Thus, we need further studies to investigate climatic and non-climatic factors influencing the seasonality of suicides and the consequence of the change.

Keyword

Cosinor; Seasonality; Suicide; Time-series analysis; Trend