Osong Public Health Res Perspect.  2020 Oct;11(5):309-318. 10.24171/j.phrp.2020.11.5.07.

Alarm Thresholds for Pertussis Outbreaks in Iran: National Data Analysis

Affiliations
  • 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 2Center for Communicable Diseases Control, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
  • 3Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
  • 4School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract


Objectives
The purpose of the current study was to determine the upper threshold number of cases for which pertussis infection would reach an outbreak level nationally in Iran.
Methods
Data on suspected cases of pertussis from the 25th February 2012 to the 23rd March 2018 from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Iran was used. The national upper threshold level was estimated using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method and the Poisson regression method.
Results
In total, 2,577 (33.6%) and 1,714 (22.3%) cases were reported in the Spring and Summer respectively. There were 1,417 (18.5%) and 1,971 (25.6%) cases reported in the Autumn and Winter, respectively. The overall upper threshold using the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods, was estimated as a daily occurrence of 8 (7.55) and 7.50 (4.48-11.06) suspected cases per 10,000,000 people, respectively. The daily seasonal thresholds estimated by the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods were 10, 7, 6, 8 cases and 10, 7, 7, 9 cases for the Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter, respectively.
Conclusion
The overall and seasonal estimated thresholds by the 2 methods were similar. Therefore, the estimated thresholds of 6-10 cases in a day, per 10,000,000 people could be used to detect pertussis outbreaks and epidemics by health policymakers.

Keyword

disease outbreak; epidemic; pertussis; seasons
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