J Korean Med Sci.  2016 Jun;31(6):892-901. 10.3346/jkms.2016.31.6.892.

Cancer Mortality Projections in Korea up to 2032

• Son M
• Yun JW

• KMID: 2373698
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2016.31.6.892

Abstract

Predicting cancer mortality is important to estimate the needs of cancer-related services and to prevent cancer. Despite its significance, a long-term future projection of cancer mortality has not been conducted; therefore, our objective was to estimate future cancer mortality in Korea by cancer site through 2032. The specially designed Nordpred software was used to estimate cancer mortality. The cancer death data from 1983 to 2012 and the population projection data from 1983 to 2032 were obtained from the Korean National Statistics Office. Based on our analysis, age-standardized rates with the world standard population of all cancer deaths were estimated to decline from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (men: -39.8%, women: -33.1%). However, the crude rates are predicted to rise (men: 29.8%, women: 24.4%), and the overall number of the cancer deaths is also estimated to increase (men: 35.5%, women: 32.3%). Several cancer deaths are projected to increase (lung, liver and gallbladder, colon and rectum, pancreas and leukemia in both sexes; prostate cancer in men; and breast and ovarian cancer in women), whereas other cancer deaths are expected to decrease (stomach, esophagus and larynx in both sexes and cervical cancer in women). The largest contribution to increasing cancer deaths is due to the aging of the Korean population. In conclusion, a strategy for primary prevention, early detection, and early treatment to cope with the rapidly increasing death of cancer due to population aging is urgently required.

Keyword

Neoplasms; Mortality Forecasting; Korea

MeSH Terms

Age Factors
Female
Humans
Male
Models, Theoretical
Neoplasms/*mortality
Republic of Korea
Survival Analysis

Figure

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  Fig. 1 The crude rates and age-standardized rates in the observed (1983-2012) and predicted periods (2013-2032) by cancer site. CR, the crude rates (per 100,000 person-years); ASR, the age-standardized rates using the world standard population (per 100,000 person-years).

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  Fig. 2 The age-specific rates of all cancer deaths in the observed (1983-2012) and predicted periods (2013-2032).

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  Fig. 3 The crude rate trends by cancer site from 1983-1987 to 2028-2032 in both sexes.

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