Health Policy Manag.  2022 Mar;32(1):73-93. 10.4332/KJHPA.2022.32.1.73.

Development of a Demand Model for Physician Workforce Projection on Regional Inequity Problem in Korea Using System Dynamics

• Lee GM
• Yoo KB

• KMID: 2534938
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4332/KJHPA.2022.32.1.73

Abstract

Background
Appropriate physician workforce projection through reasonable discussions and decisions with a broad view on supply and demand of the workforce, thus, is very important for high-quality healthcare services. The study expects to provide preliminary research data on the workforce diagnosis standard model for Korean physician workforce policy decision through more flexible and objective physician workforce projection in reflection of diverse changes in healthcare policy and sociodemographic environments.
Methods
A low flow rate through the causal map was developed, and an objective workforce demand projection from 2019 to 2040 was conducted. In addition, projections by scenarios under various situations were conducted with the low flow rate developed in the study. Lastly, the demand projection of the physician workforce by region of 17 cities and provinces was conducted.
Results
First, demand of physicians in 2019 was 110,665, 113,450 in 2020, 129,496 in 2025, 146,837 in 2030, 163,719 in 2035, and 179,288 in 2040. Second, the scenario for the retirement of baby boomers led to a decrease in the growth rate due to time delay. Third, Seoul and Gyeonggi-do account for a high percentage of demand, a very high upward trend was identified in Gyeonggi-do, and as a result, the projection showed that the demand of the physician workforce in Gyeonggi-do would worsen over time.
Conclusion
This study is meaningful in that rational and collective physician workforce supply and demand and its imbalance in workforce distribution were verified through various projections by scenarios and regions of Korea with System Dynamics.

Keyword

Physician workforce; Demand; System dynamics; Projection; Stock and flow diagram