Cancer Res Treat.  2015 Jul;47(3):362-369. 10.4143/crt.2014.110.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea

• Oh CM
• Jung KW
• Won YJ
• Shin A
• Kong HJ
• Lee JS

• KMID: 2148484
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2014.110

Abstract

PURPOSE
South Korea has the highest incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the world, and the incidence rate continues to increase. The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in Korea.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Using the Korean National Cancer registry database, age-standardized incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) in thyroid cancer according to sex and histologic type were analyzed between 1997 and 2011. Age-period-cohort models were applied using an intrinsic estimator method according to sex.
RESULTS
In both men and women, the incidence of thyroid cancer showed a sharp increase from 1997 through 2011. Among the histologic types, papillary carcinoma showed the greatest increase, with APCs of 25.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.7% to 27.5%) in men and 23.7% (95% CI, 21.9% to 25.5%) in women, whereas anaplastic carcinoma did not show a significant increase in either sex. An increase in overall thyroid cancer incidence over time was observed in all birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model indicated a steeply increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 1997 to 2011 in both men and women. The age effect showed an inverted U-shaped trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight increase or remain constant from 1952 to 1977, followed by a decrease.
CONCLUSION
The period effect can explain the sharp increase in thyroid cancer incidence, strongly suggesting the role of thyroid screening.

Keyword

Thyroid; Neoplasms; Incidence; Time trends; Korea

MeSH Terms

Carcinoma
Carcinoma, Papillary
Cohort Effect
Cohort Studies
Female
Humans
Incidence*
Korea
Male
Mass Screening
Parturition
Thyroid Gland
Thyroid Neoplasms*

Figure

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  Fig. 1. Age standardized incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer in men (A) and women (B).

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  Fig. 2. Thyroid cancer incidence rates in Korean men (A) and women (B) by age at cancer incidence, period, and birth cohort.

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  Fig. 3. Age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer in Korean men.

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  Fig. 4. Age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer in Korean women.

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  Appendix 1. Association between the numbers of ultrasonographs per 100,000 individuals and thyroid cancer incidence per 100,000 individuals in Korea, 2000-2011.

Reference

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